Letters in Economic Research Updates
A Comprehensive Analysis of State Partition, Confederation and Post-War Governance Scenarios
Abstract
Issam AW Mohamed
Since the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) mutiny on April 15, 2023, Sudan has experienced a catastrophic civil war that has fundamentally altered its political geography, social fabric, and economic foundations. This paper provides a comprehensive academic analysis of Sudan’s political future through the lens of conflict systems theory, game-theoretic modeling, and entropy metrics. Drawing on the author’s concurrent analyses and extensive scholarly literature, the study examines the counterfactual scenario of RSF ascendancy and its implications for state unity. It could be a simple answer to suggest division of the country. However, previous experience and the geostrategic location of the country suggest future conflicts that may extend to further threats around a divided country. The analysis advances the hypothesis of inevitable partition, arguing that the process has already begun through informal understandings, including tacit arrangements involving regional actors. Using a repeated prisoner’s dilemma framework with a revenge parameter (rt) and Shannon entropy measures, the paper predicts a 50% territorial bifurcation and proposes a confederation model incorporating 60% local revenue retention, Peace and Security Council mediation, and joint counter-terrorism forces. The confederation framework offers a 65% probability of sustaining cohesion (H < 2.5) if implemented by Q2 2026, potentially reducing terrorism recruitment by 50% and stabilizing regional security. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for international actors, regional powers, and Sudanese stakeholders to mitigate the worst outcomes of state fragmentation while preserving the possibility of a unified governance framework.