Artificial Intelligence and Electrical & Electronics Engineering: AIEEE Open Access
Optimization of European Natural Gas Supply Chain Through Multi-Tier Analysis and Advanced Computational Methods: A Strategic Response to Post-Nord Stream Energy Security
Abstract
Chur Chin
The destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines has fundamentally altered Europe’s energy security landscape, necessitating rapid reconfiguration of natural gas supply chains. This study presents a comprehensive optimization framework integrating Multi-Tier Analysis (MTA), supply chain visibility modeling (Willow), and high-dimensional optimization algorithms (Majorana-based Fermionic Circuit Optimization) to redesign European gas procurement strategies. We model alternative supply routes through Central Asia, the Southern Gas Corridor, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) diversification, evaluating economic viability, technical constraints, and geopolitical risks [1,2]. Utilizing Majorana computational methods originally developed for quantum systems, we achieve 12% reduction in transportation costs through dynamic pressure optimization and bottleneck resolution [3]. Our analysis demonstrates that Azerbaijan-sourced gas expansion combined with Turkey-hub swap mechanisms provides superior economic resilience compared to LNG alternatives, maintaining positive cash flow even under bearish market scenarios (TTF $6.0/MMBtu). Environmental constraints including methane emissions monitoring and Caspian Sea ecosystem protection are integrated into the optimization model [4,5]. Sensitivity analysis reveals project break-even at TTF $5.4/MMBtu, significantly below projected long-term price floors. The proposed hybrid pricing formula incorporating TTF averaging, Brent crude linkage, and efficiency- sharing mechanisms aligns producer and consumer interests while maintaining supply security. This multi-dimensional optimization framework provides actionable policy recommendations for European energy independence while meeting 2026 EU ESG supply chain due diligence requirements [6,7].