AgriScience Journal of Sustainable Agriculture and Agroecology
LongâTerm Drought Dynamics and MultiâIndex Evaluation in the Aleppo Region, Northern Syria (1984â2024)
Abstract
Ola Mossa
Understanding long�?�term drought dynamics in semi�?�arid regions is essential for improving water�?�resource management and enhancing climate�?�resilience strategies. This study investigates drought variability in the Aleppo region of northern Syria over a 41�?�year period (1984–2024) using an integrated multi�?�index approach. Annual climatic and environmental variables—including precipitation, temperature, wind speed, soil moisture, runoff, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and NDVI—were extracted from TerraClimate and Landsat datasets. Four drought indicators were computed: the SPI to assess precipitation�?�driven drought, the SPEI to capture heat�?�amplified drought, a modified PDI incorporating NDVI to represent agricultural and eco�?�hydrological drought, and the composite CDI to integrate multiple drought dimensions. Trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test revealed significant increases in temperature, PET, and NDVI, indicating intensifying evaporative demand and evolving land�?�surface conditions. Results show a clear climatic transition: drought was predominantly rainfall�?�driven before 2000, while post�?�2000 droughts were increasingly controlled by rising temperatures and atmospheric demand. PDI recorded the highest drought frequency, highlighting persistent soil�?�moisture and vegetation stress, whereas SPEI exhibited the longest drought durations, reflecting prolonged climatic drought episodes. NDVI strongly mirrored drought fluctuations, with marked declines during severe drought years (1999, 2008, 2010, 2017, 2021). Overall, the multi�?�index assessment demonstrates that Aleppo is experiencing more complex and persistent drought conditions driven by both climatic warming and environmental pressures. These findings underscore the need for adaptive agricultural strategies, improved water�?�resource planning, and enhanced early�?�warning systems to mitigate future drought impacts.
